The performance of the agricultural machinery market in the first half of 2010 was unexpected. Under the influence of subjective and objective factors such as unfavorable agricultural meteorology, lag in the implementation of national subsidy projects, weak actual demand of users, and reduction of buyers, the sales situation of agricultural machinery market did not follow the path expected at the beginning of the year. The popularity of the year is very different, and in the face of reality, many people's good wishes have failed again. But the first half of the year has become a thing of the past. While looking back at the past and summarizing our experience and lessons, we must focus on the later-stage market. After a comprehensive analysis of various factors, the author believes that there are still great opportunities for the agricultural machinery market in the second half of the year, and well-prepared companies will certainly make a difference.

1. Analysis of favorable factors of agricultural machinery market in the second half of the year

1. There was a demand gap in the first half of the year

In 2009, my country's agricultural machinery market experienced an unprecedented good situation. Many companies have achieved good business performance and made a lot of money. However, last year, many companies were insufficiently prepared for the market, resulting in untimely supply when the peak season came. There is a phenomenon of out-of-stock loss. This year, learning from the experience and lessons of last year, all enterprises have generally strengthened production preparations and increased channel distribution. However, due to the overall implementation time of the national project two months later than that in 2009, some regions and some products have missed sales opportunities. For example, in March and April, the large and medium-sized wheel tractors and seeders were used for spring ploughing and spring sowing, and the wheat combine harvester was operated in three summers, which also left a gap in demand for the sales of agricultural machinery products in the second half of the year. According to the statistics of previous years, the ratio of sales demand for agricultural machinery products in the first and second half of the year is about 7:3. This year, due to the late implementation of the project, many places missed the agricultural time. Therefore, it is expected that the ratio of sales demand in the first and second half of the year will be about 6.5:3.5, so the second half of the year The size of the market still deserves attention.

2. The national subsidy project is expected to start early in the second half of the year

Last year, the second batch of 3 billion national subsidy funds was officially allocated in mid-September. It was inevitable that some agricultural machinery sales opportunities in August and September were missed, which also affected autumn ploughing and autumn sowing. In the first half of this year, a batch of projects was launched in mid-May. It has only entered the peak period, which has seriously affected the sales of agricultural machinery products and farmland operations. In April and May this year, the Ministry of Agriculture and the Agricultural Machinery Industry Association organized personnel to investigate and investigate some key enterprises all over the country. Drawing on the experience and lessons of last year and the first half of this year, and considering the suggestions of most companies, it is expected that the second batch of state subsidies this year will be earlier than the same period last year, and the project will be launched earlier than the same period last year. In the first half of the year, there was news from the Ministry of Agriculture that the second batch of state subsidies would be allocated by the end of June, but it had not been allocated by mid-July. Based on the analysis of the agricultural season and the sales season of agricultural machinery products, it is expected that the Ministry of Agriculture will release the funds at the end of July or early August. The second batch of subsidy funds of 5.5 billion yuan will be allocated, and the second batch of projects will also start after the funds are allocated. The early start of the project will help enterprises to carry out marketing activities calmly, and users will have sufficient time to make choices and comparisons; the extension of effective sales time will definitely increase product sales, and will also be conducive to the overall market development in the down year.

3. The second batch of state subsidy funds guarantee

Although the demand in the first half of the year did not meet people's expectations, and enterprises were generally under great inventory pressure, they did not show obvious anxiety and panic. This is because everyone knows that there is still a need for 5.5 billion yuan in state subsidies in the second half of the year. Centralized execution. In terms of quantity alone, the 5.5 billion state subsidy funds in the second half of the year are more than the total amount of state subsidy funds in the five years from 2004 to 2008. Therefore, enterprises generally place great expectations on the market in the second half of the year, and they all want to make it in the second half of the year. To show their skills, especially companies with a large sales gap in the first half of the year, they are planning to introduce competitive promotion policies recently, and plan to win the largest possible cake in the market competition in the second half of the year. The second batch of national supplementary funds will be the reassurance of various enterprises, but who can eat and how much of this batch of funds depends on the comprehensive strength of the enterprise and its grasp of market opportunities.

4. The increase in income will drive the demand for agricultural machinery

Everything has two sides. In the first half of this year, the sales of combine harvesters fell by 50% year-on-year, which had a great impact on the operation of large enterprises such as Foton, Ward, and Jinyi. The scale of enterprise inventory was unprecedented, and the capital turnover was extremely difficult. On the other hand, for the operators who participated in cross-regional operations, the number of new machines added this year was halved, and many operators who purchased machines last year went out to work, resulting in a significant decrease in the number of combine harvesters participating in cross-regional operations in Sanxia this year. Competition among operators has eased, most operators are generally more profitable than the same period last year, and the expected payback time for machines is shortened. Affected by this favorable factor, in the second half of this year, some large agricultural machinery households and cooperatives will increase the demand for high-efficiency machinery and equipment such as large and medium-sized wheel tractors and corn harvesters. Focus on subsidies for these machines and equipment, so it is expected that there will be a wave of sales peaks in the demand for these products in the second half of the year.

5. Other factors

Different from the first half of the year, in the second half of each year, there will be some non-state subsidized agricultural projects to be implemented or completed, such as the high-quality grain project implemented across the years, the construction of commodity grain bases, the new 50 billion grain project, the autumn farmland infrastructure project, disease Reinforcement and maintenance projects of dangerous reservoirs and dams, as well as some other local agricultural projects, new rural construction projects, etc. will directly and indirectly increase the demand for agricultural machinery, so we have reasons to believe that the market demand space for agricultural machinery in the second half of the year is still very good. Worth the wait.

2. Characteristics of market competition in the second half of the year

Due to the implementation of fixed subsidies for agricultural machinery products this year, in the case of weak sales in the first half of the year, in order to clear the inventory in the channel as soon as possible, all enterprises will attach great importance to the market sales opportunities in the second half of the year. To expand sales, strong companies will passively follow up in order to maintain their market position. Of course, it is not ruled out that some large-scale companies will take the lead in provoking price wars in order to integrate the market and combat competitors. Price is the most powerful tool for competition. It is expected that in the second half of the year, price wars will become the mainstream and normality of industry competition in various sales areas. The consequence of price wars is that companies with strong comprehensive strength and outstanding cost control ability will win, while some companies with weak competitiveness will win. of enterprises will be eliminated, perhaps this year will be the first year of competition in the agricultural machinery industry since the implementation of the national subsidy policy in 2004, because the number of domestic manufacturers of various agricultural machinery products has reached an abnormal state, if the industry does not compete any more Elimination will inevitably affect the healthy development of the industry.